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Is this year's Best Actress race the hardest to predict in recent memory?


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  • Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    Best Actress in a bloodbath this year, with 5 women having legitimate chances to take home the Oscar. In an unpredictable awards season, anything can happen. Would you guys say that this race is the hardest Oscar race to predict in recent memory?

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    manakamana
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    I think the nomination-count of each respective film will make it clearer. To me, Three Billboards is already clearly the one film hitting everything most consistently, so I would say Frances is ahead, but if Lady Bird and Shape of Water overperform on nominations morning then maybe it’ll be closer.

    I am predicting Meryl for the Golden Globe for the “moment,” but they also rewarded Madonna over Frances’s Fargo performance, so I don’t think it’ll make too big a difference.

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    sofan
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    It is not, cause at this point nothing is clear last year we had three women in contention and first Globes, then SAG made it clear. The same thing will happen this year and every other year following this year. In a week we’ll see who are top 2 and the SAG and BAFTA will make it clear who wins in the end.

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    rodman
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    When was the last time four out of five best actresses are in movies also nominated for best picture?

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    JackO
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    Best Actress in a bloodbath this year, with 5 women having legitimate chances to take home the Oscar. In an unpredictable awards season, anything can happen. Would you guys say that this race is the hardest Oscar race to predict in recent memory?

    Who are these 5?

    I count 3 tops: Ronan, McDormaand, and Robbie.

    the rest is blind stanning.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    @PJ Edwards Streep is a definite threat to win this year, especially if The Post has a strong showing on nomination day. As for Hawkins, she is McDormand’s strongest competition. She has more critics award win than McDormand and her film has a lot of buzz.

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    JackO
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    @PJ Edwards Streep is a definite threat to win this year, especially if The Post has a strong showing on nomination day. As for Hawkins, she is McDormand’s strongest competition. She has more critics award win than McDormand and her film has a lot of buzz.

    Streep and The Post missed SAG completely. She ain’t winning. The Post could get 24 nominations on Oscar day, she still won’t win. Hawkins film missed SAG ensemble. Her film is not as strong as the others I mentioned. And she lacks the narrative of a ingenue like Robbie. Like I said, blind stanning.

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    Mircea Bocioaca
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    What’s the narrative for Frances? She is not overdue. She’s not the clear critical favorite. Hawkins and Ronan have stronger narratives. She needs a sweep by 3B which may or may not happen.

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    Joe Burns
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    I think people are going a bit overboard with Robbie- I’m predicting her to win at the Globes and she could go all the way, but the film just doesn’t seem like Oscar’s cup of tea and the competition is fierce with more popular actresses who have been in contention before dominating this race. I just don’t see this year being the year of the breakout ingenue star.

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    Anonymous
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    For an actress to win second LEADING Oscar her movie has to be BP winner and I just don’t Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning. Sorry.

    As for the question asked in this thread: NO. It’s like this almost every single year but once GGs and especially SAG awards are given out we know who’s winning. And this year, I have got this gut feeling that whoever wins SAG is winning Oscar. McDormand won her leading SAG million years ago, they might not even remember that. It would have been kinda hilarious if from all those A-list movie stars who couldn’t win this category twice it was character actress who achieved that. lol

    Or they will vote with their dicks (like they do 99%) then say hello to your Golden Dilo, Margot.

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    Joe Burns
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    What’s the narrative for Frances? She is not overdue. She’s not the clear critical favorite. Hawkins and Ronan have stronger narratives. She needs a sweep by 3B which may or may not happen.

    I would say after 21 years since her Oscar win and with a great body of film work since(and before that as well), she is overdue for a second Oscar and her performance is tremendous. She’s a great actress in a role that fits her like a glove and is very popular in the industry. And you don’t have to be the clear critical favorite to win the Oscar: Past critical favorites such as Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven, Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky(not even nominated), Carey Mulligan in An Education, Michelle Williams in My Week With Marilyn, Julie Christie in Away From Her, and Sissy Spacek in In The Bedroom all failed to win the Oscar. I do think the critics have had more power in the Oscar race then some pundits seem to think, but in this category , they don’t always correlate perfectly.

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    Joe Burns
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    For an actress to win second LEADING Oscar her movie has to be BP winner and I just don’t Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning. Sorry.

    As for the question asked in this thread: NO. It’s like this almost every single year but once GGs and especially SAG awards are given out we know who’s winning. And this year, I have got this gut feeling that whoever wins SAG is winning Oscar. McDormand won her leading SAG million years ago, they might not even remember that. It would have been kinda hilarious if from all those A-list movie stars who couldn’t win this category twice it was character actress who achieved that. lol

    Or they will vote with their dicks (like they do 99%) then say hello to your Golden Dilo, Margot.

    You really don’t think Three Billboards will win? I think it will- the audiences love it and Hollywood seems to like it a great deal right now.

    As for your thoughts on SAG, it is true the new membership may not even remember(or even care enough to check) that McDormand won in 96, but she did win recently in the TV categories for Olive Kitteridge and that is fresh in their minds, even though she is obviously competing in the film race. I remember reading one comment on here from an alleged SAG voter claiming that SAG doesn’t like to repeatedly honor the same actor/actress(this was in a discussion about Meryl Streep’s SAG loss for The Iron Lady being possibly due to her SAG win for Doubt three years earlier). I wonder if that will hurt McDormand or it won’t matter given she won in the TV categories instead of the film categories? It didn’t hurt Julianne Moore who won for Game Change in 2012 and then won the SAG for Still Alice two years later, although she was sweeping that year. It didn’t prevent Kate Winslet from doing the opposite by winning for Mildred Pierce three years after taking the Supporting Actress award for The Reader. So maybe none of that will matter and McDormand will take SAG.

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    Joe Burns
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    For an actress to win second LEADING Oscar her movie has to be BP winner and I just don’t Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning. Sorry.

    As for the question asked in this thread: NO. It’s like this almost every single year but once GGs and especially SAG awards are given out we know who’s winning. And this year, I have got this gut feeling that whoever wins SAG is winning Oscar. McDormand won her leading SAG million years ago, they might not even remember that. It would have been kinda hilarious if from all those A-list movie stars who couldn’t win this category twice it was character actress who achieved that. lol

    Or they will vote with their dicks (like they do 99%) then say hello to your Golden Dilo, Margot.

    Meryl Streep, Vivien Leigh, Katharine Hepburn, Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Glenda Jackson, Elizabeth Taylor, Ingrid Bergman, Olivia Dehavilland, Bette Davis, and Louise Rainer have all won second Best Actress Oscars without their film winning Best Picture. So, I think that doesn’t really matter in McDormand’s case.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    @sasha Didn’t Elizabeth Taylor win her second Best Actress Oscar for a film that lost BP, though?

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    Suzanne Vale
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    It is not, cause at this point nothing is clear last year we had three women in contention and first Globes, then SAG made it clear. The same thing will happen this year and every other year following this year. In a week we’ll see who are top 2 and the SAG and BAFTA will make it clear who wins in the end.

    Wasn’t Helen Mirren as clear as you can get before the televised awards?  Cate for Blue Jasmine?

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